Archive for October, 2008|Monthly archive page

Obama fo’ yo Mama!

In walnotes on October 31, 2008 at 8:33 am


Here’s the election in a nutshell. Forget the national
polls; they mean nothing. The Electoral College is all.

Go to http://cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator
and click “Repeat of 2004 result.”

Obama is going to win all the states that John Kerry
won in 2004. And he’s going to win Iowa. Click that
one over to our man.

So, all Obama needs to win is:

– 1 of the big 3 battleground states — FL, OH, or VA
– 2 of the 3 Western swingers — CO, NM, and NV

Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico are looking very
good for Obama, as of this writing. Ohio and Nevada
are looking likely. Even traditionally Republican states
like North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri, who haven’t
gone Democratic since Carter or LBJ, are running neck-

(More info: http://fivethirtyeight.com)

So things are looking good for Barack. But this is no
time to be complacent. Polls are inaccurate. People lie,
or they forget to vote, or they can’t bring themselves
to vote for the dark-skinned dude. Or voter fraud.
Or Al Qaeda says howdy at the last minute. You name it,
it could happen.

These things often hinge on a TINY number of votes.
The winning margin in New Mexico was under 6,000
votes in 2004, and *366* votes in 2000. And we all
know about Florida.

So, by getting people to the polls, you can have a
real effect on this election. The two best ways to do
this are:

1) Going door-to-door
2) Talking with voters by phone

Volunteers going door-to-door produces one vote for
every 14 people contacted. Volunteers talking with
voters by phone produces one vote for every 38
people contacted.

Everything else is nearly or completely unhelpful:
telemarketers, mailers, leaflets on doors, emails, 
robo-calling. (The only exception is text-messaging,
which the campaign is already doing centrally.)

(More info: http://slate.com/id/2203146)

So, in summary: Working the phones actually WORKS. 

Obama’s Chicago HQ is counting on Californians as
their most effective phoning group. Let’s roll.

-message from Kid Beyond (aka Andrew Chaiken)